Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Kabadayi in Overkill

It was 86 years ago, when the visionary leader of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in his opening remarks to the Great National Assembly denounced the historical practice of using the religion of Islam as a political tool, demanding that the religion should be restored to its original sacral task. The first leader of Turkish nation excoriated the nation to “immediately and in the most decisive manner save our religious values from all kinds of dark goals and concupiscence.” The current leadership of Turkey under Recep Tayiip Erdogan is doing exactly what Ataturk counseled against as he fans the fury of Muslim masses against Israel. If in 1949, Turkey was the first Muslim nation to recognize the State of Israel, today the Turkish government calls Israel, not the fundamentalist Iran, “the biggest threat to peace in the Middle East” and accuses the Jewish State in perpetrating 'massacre against civilians” and “piracy in the international waters”, while Erdogan established a perfect rapport with Ahmenijjad and Haled Masahal.

Since the mid-1990s, Turkish military and civilian leaders envisioned a new role for Turkey in the broader Middle East. They proposed that Turkey had a potential and, indeed, the strategic necessity to become a central regional power in its neighborhood. In this vision, the strategic relationship with Israel plays the functional role as both a bridge to Washington and the source of cutting edge military technology and know-how. The strategic alignment formed by Turkey and Israel in the heady days following the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, found the strongest and enthusiastic proponents in Turkey among the Kemalist state bureaucracy. When Erdogan's AK party gained control of the Turkish parliament in 2002, the Kemalists warned about the creeping Islamization of Turkey. So, now eight years later, when the Turkish leadership is publicly praising Syria, Iran and Russia as its close strategic allies, the darkest fears of the secular pro-Western elite in that country were realized.

The bungled Israeli operation to intercept the Turkish boat with the Hamas supporters in the international waters off Gaza, only provided Turkey's current leadership with an excellent excuse for demonizing Israel and silencing Turkey's military that in the past years made strategic alliances with Israel. Erdogan is striking a shrewd blow against the generals in rabble-rousing anti-Israeli sentiment. Currently, at the behest of Erdogan's party, Turkey's judiciary is conducting a witch hunt against an ever-growing number of pro-secular journalists, intellectuals and ex-soldiers, who are accused of a highly nebulous "conspiracy" to overthrow the constitution. No doubt, some of them will soon be tarred with evidence of having worked too closely with Israel.

For balancing its foes, Israel needs Turkey. Firstly, Israel needs to avoid a position of regional isolation in the aftermath of the Gaza war. Turkey’s role as a moderator is also has great value for Israel. Israel needs to be seen as relevant to the processes in the Middle East, viewed through the Washington prism. In this sense, it needs to cooperate with the ‘moderate Islamist’ regime ruling Turkey.

However, here is the rub. Since the Erdogan’s outburst at the Davos Global Meeting in the beginning of February 2009. Erdogan received a triumphant welcome at home. Upon his return from Davos, Edogan was greeted as the Fatih or Savior of the “Turkish honor” by thousands of supporters at the Istanbul airport. It is futile to try to talk sense with the politician, who is seeking laurels of the new Gamal Abdel Nasser and who perfected an aggressive and acrimonious style of attacking his opponents and raised his “hoarse yell” into a method of political communication. This politician, known in Turkey, as Kabaday ("street tough" or '”hoodlum”)of Kazim Pasha ( the Istanbul's neighborhood where he grew up), has a knack for addressing the dispossessed Muslim masses in the language they readily understand, but he might further jeopardize Turkey's entry into the European Union. Using familiar slogans: “Israel - terrorist state,” “Israel is the main threat to peace in the Middle East” will play well on the Arab Street. However, how much support these diatribes will procure him in the European capitals and Washington, which are more concerned about the looming danger of nuclear Iran as their votes for recently approved Security Council sanctions indicate.

If Turkey abandons Israel, Israel needs re-energize its flagging relations with Egypt and the Gulf States, who are not particularly amused by Erdogan's Neo-Ottomanesque pretensions for the leadership of the Sunni Muslims. In the mist of the current diplomatic stand-off after the flotilla fiasco, the public image of Recep Erdogan as the protector of all Muslims has become a significant factor in the global affairs, but Israel should act quickly to neutralize internationally the Turkish government that champions the most radical causes in the Muslim world.

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Thursday, July 01, 2010

LALE KEMAL loglu@todayszaman.com Columnists Turkey’s entente with Israel in serious jeopardy

The Turkish-Israeli relationship, celebrated in the mid 1990s as an emerging Muslim-Jewish alliance in a “hostile” Middle East, has been deteriorating with increasing speed since Israel’s assault on Gaza that began in December 2008 and continued into January 2009.

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Furthermore, an Israeli raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea on May 31 of this year left nine Turks dead and marked a turning point in the further deterioration of the relationship between the two. This raised question marks over the impact of the strained relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv in the Middle East as well as in Turkey’s ties with its close ally, the US, which also needs Turkish cooperation in both Afghanistan and Iraq as well as in the strategic Black Sea region.

In an attempt to have Israel meet Turkish demands, such as offering an apology for its raid on the Turkish ship and killing nine Turks, Turkey has continued to impose gradual sanctions on Israel. Cancelling three joint military maneuvers with Israel, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters in Canada last Monday that Turkey had imposed a ban on Israeli military flights in Turkish airspace.

But Turkey has so far been reluctant to impose defense industry-related sanctions on Israel, mainly because Ankara, lacking military technology, has become heavily dependent on Israeli military systems. Turkish diplomatic sources earlier told a group of Turkish journalists that Turkey has to be careful before taking any steps on imposing an embargo on Israeli military technology because some systems -- such as F-4 and F-5 fighters as well as M-60 tanks, upgraded by Israel -- will in the future require spare parts from Israel.

An ongoing project with Israel worth about $160 million and concerning the Israeli supply of electro-optical reconnaissance pods for Turkish F-4s is currently in jeopardy. Israel is expected to not supply Turkey with the system out of a fear that Turkish F-4s may later gather reconnaissance info on Israel. Such speculation underscores a serious loss of trust between the two countries, mainly in defense industry cooperation.

Alexander Murinson recalls that Israel was able to offer Turkey in the early 1990s military cooperation without undue attention to human rights observance and also served as a conduit for American political echelons, i.e., the US Congress, which approves funding for American foreign aid and arms sales.

(Murinson, “Turkey’s Entente with Israel and Azerbaijan: State identity and security in the Middle East and Caucasus,” Routledge, 2010)

He goes on to say that the strategic Turkish-Israeli-Azerbaijani axis is bound to dissolve as the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government realigns Turkish foreign policy in the direction of greater cohesion with its Middle Eastern neighbors. Murinson quotes Israeli journalist Yoav Karny as saying, “The close strategic partnership which developed between Turkey and Israel came into being because generals took this subject out of jurisdiction of government.”

I have a reservation over Murinson’s observation, namely, that the Turkish-Israeli axis is bound to dissolve as the AK Party government realigns Turkish foreign policy in the direction of greater cohesion with its Middle Eastern neighbors. In my opinion, on the Turkish side, common sense will prevail in a way that the ruling AK Party will prevent an increased perception in the world that Turkey has been associating itself too much with the Muslim cause in the Middle East rather than seeing it as a case of conflict resolution.

On the other hand, one of the biggest problems behind deteriorating Turkish-Israeli relations has been the limited influence that the political authorities had in forging military and defense industry cooperation deals with Tel Aviv in the mid 1990s. As Karny observed, the strategic cooperation between the two countries came into being because generals took this subject out of the jurisdiction of government.

The more Turkish political authorities have attempted to put under their control the decision-making mechanism, the more Turkish-Israeli military cooperation was questioned by the majority Muslim Turkish society, which was already skeptical about Israel.

Meanwhile, a major part of responsibility lies with Israel in normalizing relations with Turkey, too, accepting the fact that the Turkish military’s central role in decision making is declining.

01 July 2010, Thursday
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/75-lale-kemal.html

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It was 86 years ago, when the visionary leader of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in his opening remarks to the Great National Assembly denounced the historical practice of using the religion of Islam as a political tool, demanding that the religion should be restored to its original sacral task. The first leader of Turkish nation excoriated the nation to “immediately and in the most decisive manner save our religious values from all kinds of dark goals and concupiscence.” The current leadership of Turkey under Recep Tayiip Erdogan is doing exactly what Ataturk counseled against as he fans the fury of Muslim masses against Israel. If in 1949, Turkey was the first Muslim nation to recognize the State of Israel, today the Turkish government calls Israel, not the fundamentalist Iran, “the biggest threat to peace in the Middle East” and accuses the Jewish State in perpetrating 'massacre against civilians” and “piracy in the international waters”, while Erdogan established a perfect rapport with Ahmenijjad and Haled Masahal.

Since the mid-1990s, Turkish military and civilian leaders envisioned a new role for Turkey in the broader Middle East. They proposed that Turkey had a potential and, indeed, the strategic necessity to become a central regional power in its neighborhood. In this vision, the strategic relationship with Israel plays the functional role as both a bridge to Washington and the source of cutting edge military technology and know-how. The strategic alignment formed by Turkey and Israel in the heady days following the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, found the strongest and enthusiastic proponents in Turkey among the Kemalist state bureaucracy. When Erdogan's AK party gained control of the Turkish parliament in 2002, the Kemalists warned about the creeping Islamization of Turkey. So, now eight years later, when the Turkish leadership is publicly praising Syria, Iran and Russia as its close strategic allies, the darkest fears of the secular pro-Western elite in that country were realized.

The bungled Israeli operation to intercept the Turkish boat with the Hamas supporters in the international waters off Gaza, only provided Turkey's current leadership with an excellent excuse for demonizing Israel and silencing Turkey's military that in the past years made strategic alliances with Israel. Erdogan is striking a shrewd blow against the generals in rabble-rousing anti-Israeli sentiment. Currently, at the behest of Erdogan's party, Turkey's judiciary is conducting a witch hunt against an ever-growing number of pro-secular journalists, intellectuals and ex-soldiers, who are accused of a highly nebulous "conspiracy" to overthrow the constitution. No doubt, some of them will soon be tarred with evidence of having worked too closely with Israel.

For balancing its foes, Israel needs Turkey. Firstly, Israel needs to avoid a position of regional isolation in the aftermath of the Gaza war. Turkey’s role as a moderator is also has great value for Israel. Israel needs to be seen as relevant to the processes in the Middle East, viewed through the Washington prism. In this sense, it needs to cooperate with the ‘moderate Islamist’ regime ruling Turkey.

However, here is the rub. Since the Erdogan’s outburst at the Davos Global Meeting in the beginning of February 2009. Erdogan received a triumphant welcome at home. Upon his return from Davos, Edogan was greeted as the Fatih or Savior of the “Turkish honor” by thousands of supporters at the Istanbul airport. It is futile to try to talk sense with the politician, who is seeking laurels of the new Gamal Abdel Nasser and who perfected an aggressive and acrimonious style of attacking his opponents and raised his “hoarse yell” into a method of political communication. This politician, known in Turkey, as Kabaday ("street tough" or '”hoodlum”)of Kazim Pasha ( the Istanbul's neighborhood where he grew up), has a knack for addressing the dispossessed Muslim masses in the language they readily understand, but he might further jeopardize Turkey's entry into the European Union. Using familiar slogans: “Israel - terrorist state,” “Israel is the main threat to peace in the Middle East” will play well on the Arab Street. However, how much support these diatribes will procure him in the European capitals and Washington, which are more concerned about the looming danger of nuclear Iran as their votes for recently approved Security Council sanctions indicate.

If Turkey abandons Israel, Israel needs re-energize its flagging relations with Egypt and the Gulf States, who are not particularly amused by Erdogan's Neo-Ottomanesque pretensions for the leadership of the Sunni Muslims. In the mist of the current diplomatic stand-off after the flotilla fiasco, the public image of Recep Erdogan as the protector of all Muslims has become a significant factor in the global affairs, but Israel should act quickly to neutralize internationally the Turkish government that champions the most radical causes in the Muslim world.

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