Friday, March 05, 2010

The March 2010 Genocide Resolution and Turkish Reaction

From:
Miller, Marjorie (Marjorie.Miller@latimes.com)
Sent:
Thu 3/04/10 10:24 PM
To:
Alexander Murinson (murinson@hotmail.com)
Thank you for your time, input. As this will be a short editorial, I won’t be able to quote you or to name your book this time. Usually these editorial conversations are on background.

From: Alexander Murinson [mailto:murinson@hotmail.com] Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2010 2:18 PMTo: Miller, MarjorieSubject: RE: Questions on House resolution?

Dear Marjorie, I would predict that some major military contracts with US will be cancelled. As a letter of Feb. 26 from the chief executives of Lockheed Martin Corp., Boeing Co., Raytheon Co., United Technologies Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp. to the committee’s Democratic chairman, Representative Howard Berman indicates. All the three manufacturers are in the midst of sensitive negotiaons with the Turkish authorities about technology transfer and purchases in the aerospace sector. As it is known Russia is competing for military contracts in Turkey with the Uniteed States. Turkey already cancelled the air exercises with Israel, whereas the NATO's allies, Italy and the United States, also declined to participate. So Turkey will have a political excuse to distance itself from the Western alliance in general, and the United States in particular. On Iran, Prime Minister Erdogan reiterated that Turkey supports Iran's nuclear program for the 'peaceful purposes.' Erdogan stated that the West is applying the 'double-standards 'to Iran, because one power in the region (presumably Israel) already posseses nuclear weapons. Turkey might threaten to stop the use of Incirlik for refueling and maintenance of the US air transports to Iraq. I would appreciate, if you mention my book Turkey's Entente with Israel and Azerbaijan (Routledge, 2009) in reference to me.
Alexander Murinson Ms.Sc. (LSE) D.Phil. (SOAS), University of Londonemail: murinson@hotmail.comPhone: 001 410-664-3398

Subject: RE: Questions on House resolution?Date: Thu, 4 Mar 2010 13:30:34 -0800From: Marjorie.Miller@latimes.comTo: murinson@hotmail.com
You think there will be anything more consequential for US-Turkish relationship beyond calling Amb back for consultations? What concrete negative consequences? They’ve already distanced selves from Israel, which is why the likes of Berman voting for this. Iran? Iraq? Since this whole thing is symbolic, anyway?

From: Alexander Murinson [mailto:murinson@hotmail.com] Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2010 1:22 PMTo: Miller, MarjorieSubject: RE: Questions on House resolution?

Hi Marjorie, Since the resolution passed in the Foreign Relations Committee several minutes ago, Turkey declared its intention to call back its ambassador for consultations. It is hard to predict the concrete steps, but there will be negative consequences for the bilateral relations.The embattled Turkish military (under pressure from the AKP) will try ride the wave of popular backlash and express more nationalist and populist opinions about the American anti-Turkish stance. the Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, a representative of more conservative and religious circles in Turkey, warned against the passing the Genocide Resolution before nad and he will use diplomatic pressure and some counter-measures to voice Turkey's sense of betrayal by its main NATO ally. Secular Kemalist circles are also enraged by this legislative act, but liberal intellectauls in Turkey have more lenient view of this matter. In my vioew, it shouldn't derail the negotiation with Armenia, but it might put on the freeze until all political consequences of this crisis between USA and Turkey will play out. Keep me posted. Truly,
Alexander Murinson Ms.Sc. (LSE) D.Phil. (SOAS), University of Londonemail: murinson@hotmail.comPhone: 001 410-664-3398

Subject: Questions on House resolution?Date: Thu, 4 Mar 2010 12:44:46 -0800From: Marjorie.Miller@latimes.comTo: murinson@hotmail.com
Hi Alexander,

Marjorie Miller here, editorial writer for the LAT. Nick Goldberg passed along your name. So here are some questions for you on House resolution this time: Turks serious about pulling Ambassador if Armenia genocide resolution goes forward? At what point would they do it--House committee, House, full senate? How far would they go? Close Incirlik? Is this any easier or harder with Turkish military corralled now? Who's more militant on Armenian issue, secular or religious Turks? And one last question, will it derail negotiations with Armenia? Your thoughts much appreciated.

Best, Marjorie

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