Tuesday, June 22, 2010


This is the cover of Chinese magazine Sanlian Life Weekly Magazine, where my interview is published.

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Александр Муринсон: Российско-турецкая дружба продлится недолго

Как считает специалист по Ближнему Востоку Вашингтонского института Александр Муринсон - дружба России и Турции продлится недолго.
По его мнению, при правительстве Партии справедливости и развития (ПСР) Турция преследует цель превращения в лидера всего исламского мира, и в этой связи внешнеполитические усилия Анкары все больше концентрируются в ближневосточном регионе. При этом она не забывает о поддержании хороших отношений с Азербайджаном и Россией. Установление особых отношений между Анкарой и Баку американский ученый объясняет, прежде всего тем, что Азербайджан, зажатый между внушающими ему опасения Россией и Ираном, стремится сблизиться с Западом, чьим представителем в регионе выступает Турция.


Отвечая на вопрос об энергетической безопасности Турции, Муринсон наметил два пути снижения энергетической зависимости страны от России и Ирана: строительство на своей территории атомных электростанций и увеличение закупок энергоносителей в Ираке. Но первая альтернатива не столь очевидна, так как страна расположена в сейсмоопасной зоне, и это в будущем может привести к серьезным авариям на АЭС.
Американский ученый считает, что турецко-российское сотрудничество сегодня опирается на следующую договоренность: Турция поддерживает российский проект «Южный поток», Россия, в свою очередь, не препятствует превращению Турции в узел по перекачке углеводородного топлива из третьих стран на европейский рынок. Но такая ситуация не может продлиться слишком долго, и Турции придется выбирать между российским и ближневосточным топливом. Если она намерена и дальше солидаризироваться с Западом, ей придется отдать предпочтение топливу, поступающему из Каспийского бассейна в ущерб газу и нефти из российских скважин.
В заключение интервью Муринсон предрек образование антитурецкого союза Ирана, Египта и Саудовской Аравии, направленного на ограничение растущего влияния Турции в ближневосточном регионе. И тогда Анкаре придется рассчитывать лишь на поддержку США и Израиля, которые «хотят видеть Турцию частью западного мира».

UN Security Council vote on new Resolution

фото Reuters 08.06.2010 20:03 : Голосование в Совете безопасности ООН по проекту новой иранской резолюции может состояться уже завтра
Об этом сообщает агентство Рейтер со ссылкой на неназванного западного дипломата.
Ранее высокопоставленный дипломатический источник в Москве сообщил, что проект полностью согласован и никаких проблем для принятия документа нет. По словам источника, члены Совбеза согласовали перечень компаний и физических лиц, в отношении которых будут введены санкции.
Напомним, США и другие страны Запада обвиняют Иран в разработке ядерного оружия. Тегеран это отрицает.

Flotilla: Sideshow to Israeli-Turkish Confrontation

Dr. Alexander Murinson
Special to the Jewish Times


The ongoing conflagration between Turkey and Israel over the confrontation at sea, between Israeli commandos and pro-Palestinian activists that ended in unfortunate death of nine protesters is just a side-show to Turkey’s strategic realignment closer to Iran and its regional allies.

Over the last three years, the world has watched as Turkey has drastically distanced itself from Israel. In the latest face-off that ended in the tragic deaths of nine people after a team of Israeli commandos attempted to board the ship that defied the Israeli requests to stay away from the Israeli territorial waters, Turkey further raised ante and threatened to break off diplomatic relations.

The Turkish ambassador was recalled from Israel and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly threatened Israel that the next “peace convoy” to Gaza will be “accompanied by Turkish naval boats.” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu declared that the relations would only be normalized, if Israel lifted the blockade of Gaza.

Sending a flotilla under Turkish flag into Israeli waters that intended, at least, to provoke Israel is a reflection of the game-changing shift that transpired in the political echelons of the Turkish leadership in its perception of Turkey’s role in the Middle East.

Despite news reports that the mission was peaceful in nature, its organizers made clear that their mission was not about delivering aid, but was a political demonstration to “break the siege on Gaza.” This tactical step could have been designed to deflect the Western criticism of Iran and shift the world’s attention to Israel’s not always prudent attempts, as the last fiasco shows, to prevent smuggling of weapons and funds to prop up the Iran-supported regime imposed by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

It has to be acknowledged that the “peace flotilla” received an official blessing of Prime Minister Erdogan, who called the bungled Israeli military operation to prevent penetration of Israeli-controlled sea waters ‘an act of piracy.” Erdogan threatened the Israelis that Turkey will insist on ending of the Israeli blockade by any means is close in diplomatic language to a declaration of war. The described series of events are not isolated incidents or random political statements, but a thought-out and long term policy of the current government of Turkey.

As the Turkish Prime Minister intimated on many occasions that Turkey sees eye-to-eye with Iran, Russia and Syria on most of the regional issues including the Palestinian-Israeli conflict process and the possibility of including Hamas as a party to negotiations, as the recent statements by Presidents Dmitry Medevdev and Abdullah Gul confirmed during a joint press conference in Ankara on May 15.

Ankara’s relations with Syria experience an unprecedented closeness, with Erdogan proclaiming “brotherly love” between the two neighbors. On December 26, Mr. Erdogan said in Damascus: “The achievements and fruits of those deep relations became tangible in our region in all fields… they became a reality that anyone couldn’t ignore in any case.”

The changing of profile of Turkey vis-à-vis Israel, from a fellow secular Western democracy to an aspiring neo-Ottoman power that that seeks to command world’s respect as the successor state of the Ottoman Empire that ruled for 500 years in this geography should be taken into account in Israeli foreign policy calculations.

Ahmet Davutoglu clarified the new Turkish position in an Al-Jazeera interview that good relations of Turkey with Israel were not an end in itself, but “a tool for achievement of the regional peace.” In fact, it is the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu who is the intellectual father of the new Turkish foreign policy doctrine, called the “Strategic Depth”, which emphasizes imperial Ottoman and Islamic legacies and its geographic position at the apex of the three adjacent to Turkey land basins: the Middle East, the Balkans and the Caucasus as defining features of its global strategy.

Israel should be wary of its former close ally that claims that it views the Middle East from the “Muslim perspective.” The sponsoring of the “peace flotilla” that intended to provide political support to Hamas-controlled Gaza and recent pro-Iranian diplomatic endeavors are solid indications that Turkey seeks to construct a new regional union or, or at least an axis, comprising its Muslim neighbors. In this context, the Iranian search for nuclear weapons need not necessarily be perceived as a threat, but could instead serve as a bargaining chip to be used by Turkey in the new global and regional calculus.

If, as late as 1997, Turkish strategists listed Russia, Greece, Iraq, Iran, and Syria as the top threats to regional security, now, under the Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey singles out Israel for that distinction. Pointing an accusatory finger at Israel, during the 2008 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visit to Turkey, the Turkish leader stated that “countries which are against Iran’s nuclear weapons, should themselves not have nuclear weapons.”

During his stop-over in France, on the way to the recent NPT review conference in Washington, Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated to reporters that Israel was “the main threat to Middle East peace.” While castigating Israel, the Turkish leader, referring to Ahmadinejad as his “dear friend”, added in his interview with Le Figaro that diplomacy, not sanctions, is the only way to solve the current crisis over Iran’s nuclear program.

The “Iran Six”, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—Russia, China, the United States, the United Kingdom and France—plus Germany, all voiced skepticism about the Teheran agreement, which proposes to swap 1,200 kilograms of Iran’s low enriched uranium in Turkey, reached between Iran, Brazil and Turkey on May 17.

Last Wednesday (May 19), the White House reacted with surprise to the Brazilian-Turkish initiative that potentially would allow Iran to escape international sanctions and continue to enrich uranium. The U.S. draft resolution for the fourth round of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program was introduced only a day after Iran signed on to a nuclear fuel swap deal with Turkey and Brazil.

President Barack Obama’s spokesman stated that the President had a phone conversation with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan in which he indicated that “the international community’s concern about the Iranian nuclear program is increasing, not decreasing.” President Obama pointed out to the Turkish Prime Minister that actions of Tehran did not “build trust.”

The staunch supporter of the tougher line on Iran, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, talking to reporters in China on Tuesday in her comments about the Tehran agreement, said: “There are a number of deficiencies with it that do not answer the concerns of the international community.” She dismissed this initiative as an evasion tactic by the Iranian regime and drew attention to the fact “the agreement that was reached in Tehran a week ago between Iran and Brazil and Turkey only occurred because the Security Council was on the brink of publicly releasing the text of the resolution that we have been negotiating for many weeks.”

Even Russia and China are closer now to supporting the Western position that calls for new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, though their vote of approval in the Security Council is not guaranteed.

Turkey’s leadership provides a diplomatic cover for Iran and its regional affiliates such as Hamas in pursuing its regional aspirations in exchange for future power sharing in the evolving post-American Middle East. Even if the brokered Turkish-Brazilian deal with Iran fails to deliver, which is, according to American and Israeli experts, is a foregone conclusion, Turkey will further reinforce its stature not only as the key player in the Muslim world, but also as the sine qua non in global affairs. This is an important objective of Turkey’s implicit support of Iran, while the Turkish Prime Minister accuses Israel, as the lone nuclear power in the Middle East, of undermining regional peace and security.

The dramatic shift of Tehran in its relationship with its Western neighbor is due to the new assessment of the growing role of Turkey. It is worth remembering, that just in four years Iran dismissed the similar nuclear swap offer from Turkey. Then an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed the idea, stating “it is certainly out of the question to engage in a joint venture with any country other than Russia in that country’s territory.”

Despite reservations of the Great Powers, Iran found in Turkey and Brazil willing geopolitical chess players in its race to join the nuclear club. All three nations are seeking the status of global powers. Both Turkey and Brazil have close economic and strategic ties with Iran. Turkey and Brazil serve currently as two out of five non-permanent members of UN Security Council, while Brazil aspires to become a permanent member.

The Security Council’s rules of voting on substantial matters, such as the fourth rounds of sanctions against Iran, require a nine-member majority. As members of the Security Council, both countries are capable of thwarting the attempt to approve crippling’ sanctions approved by UN Security Council. This will provide breathing space for the Iranian regime to avoid on-site inspections from the IAEA on its soil and continue on its progress to its strategic goal.

Dr. Alexander Murinson is a Baltimore-based independent researcher. He writes about security, issues of identity, religion and globalization, nationality problem in northern Eurasia. He is the author of “Turkey’s Entente with Israel and Azerbaijan State Identity and Security in the Middle East and Caucasus” (Routledge). The book is available here: http://www.amazon.com/Turkeys-Entente-Israel-Azerbaijan-Routledge/dp/0415778921/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpi_1 .



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